Topic: Switch 2 Has To Much Against It To Be A Commercial Success

Ehh, that hasn't been my anecdotal experience and there's been many other people saying the same thing. What I've been seeing is that employers for the last few years have been extremely reluctant to hire or promote and the job market is feeling much worse than what the numbers are saying. Employers are continually firing and laying off workers and making the remaining workers pick up the slack to the point where people are doing the work of 2 or 3 people. There's been more and more mandatory overtime. And some people have stated needing a second or even third job to afford living expenses. And if you're looking for a job? It's a nightmare. Job boards are littered with ghost jobs, which are job listings where the employer doesn't actually intend to hire anyone (there's a few reasons why they're doing that, such as data mining or gauging interest in the positions). You're often competing with hundreds of other candidates. And I sure have not seen jobs at $20 minimum (I've seen some in the $10-$15 range), and I'm looking for a job in tech, which is supposed to be one of the most lucrative industries in the economy. I strongly suspect that there are numbers being fudged here to make the economy look better than it is. Employers want the tax benefits from being always "hiring" and want to shift the blame for why no one can afford basic necessities, so there's definitely motive to do so. The real unemployment number may very well be 10+%.

I would say to what @JaxonH is saying that broadly regardless of what the economy is looking like, with rare exceptions, there are always people doing alright

Even just the last few years in Perth Australia. Consider how different the housing expenses situation is when you consider someone who bought in 2019 before the post COVID boom and paid something like 40% less for a now mortgaged house. Compare that to someone who is still renting. For a relatively small 3x1 first dude is probably something like $100-200/week better off, before even considering the fact that they own part of a house

So there can be vast differences in people's money situations even with the same jobs, same services, same house, same bills. Some people are doing pretty good, some people certainly aren't

@Bolt_Strike
I'm in a town of about 25,000 people and every factory in town has openings for $20-25/hr. They're even hiring people from Huber just to get butts in the door. I actually saw a Yard Sale sign written in marker advertising no-skill jobs starting at $22/hr. It's wild cause I had to work for nearly 15 years to crack the equivalent $40/hr range and now 20 yr old kids are starting at $50k/yr (though I'm out of a job at the moment for unrelated reasons).

Idk what the real unemployment rate is, but I do know what it is relative to past rates using the same metrics. So if the real rate is 10% then when 2008 hit it was probably 20%. Point being it's still in the same range it's been for years. I have so many agencies and scouts contacting me every week for jobs I had to disable my Linked In profile saying I was looking for work (cause I'm not- got something that needs taking care of before I go back to work). I'm a metrology engineer and I've got offers for merely programming a CMM that start at $42.50/hr. Thats more than I was making as an engineer. It's wild.

TOO much

I've already pre-ordered along with all the bells & whistles but still think it doesn't have any of that WOW! factor you got with Nintendo first party games and it's older consoles, you know the titles you just couldn't believe you were seeing. I'm OK'ish with the Switch 2 launch games/early releases but really don't think there's anything that's gonna give me the same sense of joy & wonder that those earlier releases did. Maybe when the Switch 2's install base has been up and running for a while, we'll see some old Nintendo Magic once again but for know think that we'll just be drip fed mediocre third party ports to help keep the fires burning (hope that's enough)

My hope is that even if first-party is at least quieter to start when only counting Switch 2 exclusives, that the first-party pacing is even better than Switch. COVID-19 really led to some less than desirable scheduling of first-party titles. Unless you buy and play the majority of Nintendo IPs, 2020 and 2021 got pretty rough on first party. And 2018 was quieter until October largely because of how much of a banger 2017 was.

@LuigiTheGreenFire A lot of the pacing of first party games was due to having a bunch of Wii U ports and remasters/remakes to fill in gaps between new releases. Without any of that I don’t see the first party line up being as consistent. In fact I’m expecting droughts much like Sony is seeing.

I'd like to challenge this seemingly prevalent notion that Switch 2 has a quiet start 1st party wise.

If we look at the 7 months from launch (so assuming we know the complete Switch 2 line-up to the end of 2025) and exclude any multiplatform games / ports, we get the following:

Switch

• Snipperclips
• 1-2 Switch
• Arms
• Splatoon 2
• Super Mario Odyssey

Switch 2

• Mario Kart World
• Donkey Kong Bananza
• Drag x Drive
• Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment
• Kirby Air Riders

So 5 each, I guess?

Now many would argue that BotW and Mario Kart 8, despite being Wii U games originally, were both crucial to a large part of the Switch's first year (and its identity overall). I won't argue with this - but what if we include enhanced ports / multiplatforms in each of these lists?

Switch

• Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
• Pokken Tournament DX
• Fire Emblem Warriors

Switch 2

• Metroid Prime 4 Beyond
• Pokemon Legends: Z-A
• Legend of Zelda; Breath of the Wild
• Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land + Star-Crossed World
• Super Mario Party Jamboree + Jamboree TV

By numbers alone Switch 2 is the winner here - although I appreciate that these games might have different weighting depending on the actual novelty of the game (2 "new" games on each list, plus the significance of the new content on rereleased games).

But my point is - I think this is a solid launch window line-up, maybe one of Nintendo's best. Add to that the excellent third party support right out the gate (I think people are forgetting how relatively barren the Switch's library was in 2017) and personally I find there might even be too much for me to play.

@Buizel
Ya, the 3rd party lineup is incredible. Over the course of the entire 8th generation and early 9th generation, countless 3rd party games were released. Some better than others. And the really good ones often took half a year to a year of added content, patches and fixes before they truly blossomed. The benefit of Switch 2 is that it gets to skim the cream right off the top of the last decade. Cherry picking 8th gen's finest, already fixed and patched up, already complete with expansions (and in many cases, adding even more content for the Switch 2 release), ready to go at launch for the benefit of hybrid gamers.

Just look at launch day alone- Street Fighter 6, Hogwarts Legacy, Yakuza 0, Hitman, Fortnite (4k 60fps/1080p 120fps confirmed), Civilization VII, Cyberpunk 2077, Bravely Default, Fast Fusion, Split Fiction, Nobanuga's Ambition, Rune Factory Guardians of Azuma...

Thats just day one. Day freaking ONE! And these games span a wide variety of genres, ensuring gamers of all stripes are catered to. Racing fans, RPG fans, FPS fans, strategy fans, 4X fans, co-op adventure fans, 3rd person adventure fans, fighting game fans, open world fans... all covered. That's really impressive.

And more is on the way. Much, much more. I remember when the Switch launched- we waited well over half a year before we got a single AAA 3rd party game. Well, there was LA Noire Remastered we got that summer. But aside from that, we had to wait until the end of the year just to get DOOM and Skyrim. We've got more quality 3rd party games ready at launch than we saw on Switch within the first 24 months.

Even if Switch 2 is unable to run many mid to late 9th generation titled, or gets them but doesn't run them with satisfactory performance, there's still so many choice 8th gen games (all of which will run), on top of select mid to late 9th generation titles that can and will run fine, we really are going to have too much to play. Daemon x Machina: Titanic Scion, Borderlands 4, Tony Hawk 3-4, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Elden Ring, The Duskbloods, Assassins Creed Shadows, Star Wars Outlaws, Project 007... the system hasn't even launched yet and we've got this many quality 3rd party games lined up post-launch. And I'm willing to bet this is just the tip of the iceburg.

And then there's the 1st party titles. Mario Kart World, Donkey Kong Bonanza, Welcome Tour (It may be a small game but I confess I'm interested), Drag x Drive (Might not have legs- no pun intended- though how funny would that have been to be named LEGS as a follow up to ARMS 😀 don't cancel me please! But it's a new bespoke experience with dual mice controls, I gotta play it on those grounds alone), Hyrule Warriors Age of Imprisonment, Kirby AirRiders, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon Legends Z-A, and a whole slew of NSW2 Editions of games that at worst make them high fidelity experiences worth revisiting and at best offer brand new DLC expansion content.

Oh, and let's not forget GameCube games. They're HD, they have online, remappable controls and save states... As far as I'm concerned, we're essentially getting Zelda The Windwaker HD, Soul Caliber II HD and F-Zero GX HD (I've been begging for this game for countless years). Also ready to go day one. At launch.

It's wild.

Yeah I forgot about this. I've been meaning to replay WW for a while now and, while it's disappointing we're not getting WW HD, I'm tempted to play it on NSO and I think it's a game well worth playing in 2025. I'll definitely put some time (if I can find it) into Soul Calibur 2 and F-Zero as well.

Hmm actually I wonder how Fast Fusion will do considering F-Zero is on NSO. I remember early in the Switch's life people hypothesised that Nintendo were delaying virtual console as to give indies a chance to sell. That's...clearly not happening here.

Thinking about this, I'm not sure the Switch -> Switch 2 transition is very different. A lot has been made about how the Switch early on leant on Wii U ports to bulk up its library and generate excitement early on and how with Switch 2 that's not there. But is it not there? The Switch 2 Enhanced Editions and Free Updates kinda do the same thing

They might not be as in-your-face and they might not have to justify themselves quite as much because of the lower price point vs buying the whole game. And obviously the Switch sold so more people had these games. But when I sit back and think about what I'm looking forward to on Switch 2 during that launch window? Sure, it's Kart, Fast Fusion, DK, Prime. But it's also the BotW/TotK patch, maybe giving Link's Awakening another run with a presumed performance update, giving GameShare on ClubHouse games a go. Also what does ARMS bring?

Also, I skipped Captain Toad on Switch because I had it on Wii U and the idea of that game to me just seemed a bit off without the two screens. But if this free update is adding that back in via GameShare and will allow me to effectively use my Switch OLED as a GamePad? It has been 10 years, I wouldn't be opposed to revisiting it, maybe I pick up a copy for Switch now

Functionally these patches, updates and new editions are kinda behaving the same as the Wii U ports

Honestly, the entire thing with Switch 2 is unless the sales are shockingly underwhelming early on, I think we won't know too much about its success until 2026. it was the 2nd year of Switch when it was abundantly clear that they had run out of games after making sure they all hit their 2017 release dates (and what new games they had for much of the year were either weird experiments or underwhelming for what people expected in terms of content). Like Smash Ultimate almost felt like it existed to make up for the rest of that year that was a mix of weird, niche products, Wii U ports, and games lacking in day 1 content in one way or the other.

It worked because the first year was so good, and enough of those games had DLC, and the core of the 2018 non-Smash games were generally good enough. But I have no idea what a Switch 2 equivalent of that looks like, good or bad.

I have a funny feeling that the Switch 2 will be a flop just like the Wii U fiasco that came before it. There is just too much that the switch 1 has that the switch 2 won’t.

@Atomic77
I think if you want to make that argument you first have to answer where the existing market will go instead of Switch 2. With the Wii U the casual audience evaporated and the PS4 picked up some of the slack in the market from declining sales for Wii U/XBOne. With this generation the XB Series continued Microsoft's decline and instead of a continued migration to PS5 from XB Nintendo picked up the slack, plus the absorption of the portable market, with Switch

If this Switch market is supposedly going to do a Wii U scale decline.... where are those 100+ million hardware sales going? PS5? Steam Deck? XBox? I honestly can't see who is in a good position to capture those gamers. Also, frankly, I don't think Switch 2 has done anything that wrong to warrant such an exodus to someone else. And I don't see current economic circumstances resulting in an industry decline of that scale in absence of a migration

So, where are the Switch sales going if not largely to Switch 2?

I try to respect all legitimate opinions, but I seriously question whether people are trolling when they say they think Switch 2 will repeat Wii U, because surely no one is that irrational... right?

Wii U failed because Nintendo hadn't yet gained a large core console audience, and the device was simply undesirable. Because it was not a handheld, it was also extremely underwhelming in terms of power, as it released a year apart from PS4 yet ran games worse than PS3/360 in many cases. It was slow as dirt, clunky, and had virtually no 3rd party support. Furthermore, the casual audience Nintendo had amassed exited years before the Wii's end of life.

Switch 2 is the complete and utter opposite in every respect.

Nintendo has gained a large core audience. Not flaky casuals like with Wii, but actual gamers who are loyal and continue to buy core games. This wasn't the case for Wii U.

The device is the opposite of undesirable. In fact, Switch 2 is the most desirable console I've seen in decades, probably ever. It checked every single box gamers wanted, improving every aspect of the most popular video game console in history. This wasn't the case for Wii U.

The system is portable and yet matches the PS4 even in handheld mode- it exceeds expectations with regard to technical capability. This wasn't the case for Wii U.

Switch 2 will be lightning fast and instantly responsive, it's thin and sleek, and already has more quality 3rd party games announced before launch than Wii U got it's entire lifespan.

The notion Switch 2 is going to sell 13 million units is so ludicrously preposterous I struggle to believe the ones claiming that aren't trolling. Switch 2 will have passed the Wii U's entire lifetime sales by Christmas. Haters wont admit it, but when it happens you won't see them around these forums anymore. Same thing happened when Switch launched. Remember gatorboi making the exact same claims? "After the Nintendo loyalists all buy one sales will fall off a cliff- it'll flop worse than Wii U". Then when Switch outsold Wii U by Christmas it changed to "after it hits 30m sales will fall off a cliff". Then in mid-late 2018 the guy just disappeared and never returned.

Same thing will happen with Switch 2. Take note of the names of the ones saying this sorta stuff, and watch them go MIA after Year 1 sales are reported.

Just looked up Fortnite on Epic's website. No confirmation I can find anywhere of 4K 60fps or 1080p 120fps.

And given it's Unreal Engine 5 I'd be surprised, but if anyone can make that engine work well, it's the guys who made it

@Haruki_NLI
They confirmed it via a tweet yesterday. Though it seems the info was already out because I saw a lot of reddit pages and other forums mentioning it aboht 10-12 days ago.

But ya, the tweet said up to 4k 60fps docked and up to 1080p 120fps.

@JaxonH Thank you! There's no possible scenario where Switch 2 sells worse than Wii U. Trump could ban the system in the US and it would still sell more than Wii U.

Wii amassed a huge audience of people that had never picked up a video game system in their life. Large swaths of those same people haven't picked one up since.

With Wii U, Nintendo wanted to convert those people into dedicated gamers, but they absolutely misread the market and failed to understand that those consumers had largely moved on from the fad of the Wii, and the people that they did convert into gamers had bought an Xbox or PlayStation.

Throw in the atrocious marketing, the abysmal 3rd party support from the dev environment of nightmares, the embarrassingly slow OS/UI that they had to get on video and publicly apologize for, unappealing launch titles, and a massive 8 month drought post-launch, and you have the perfect clusterf*** that was the Wii U.

The Wii U is an amazing case study in business and marketing. Everything they could do wrong they did wrong. But I still think if it had come out 18 months earlier (with the key games also pushed forward 18 months) it would have been a decent success.

What we often lose sight of is the broader technology landscape of the time. Smartphones were growing in power exponentially year by year and the iPad too. There was a real sense (and a real opportunity) for the gaming industry to move over to smartphones and tablets. In some ways that has clearly happened but Apple, Google and Amazon turned out to have no idea of what to do with videogames outside of "sell them".

Had Apple, circa 2010-2011 formatted and presented the App Store in a different way to prevent freemium games dominating and instead promoted quality "pay once" experiences they really might have killed Nintendo. But that ship has long sailed.